The UK has a new international education strategy. What does it mean for transnational education and for prospective students wanting to study in the UK?
The context – limiting incoming students and increasing global demand
The UK Government has recently published a new International Education Strategy (IES). The previous version was published in 2019 and clearly much has changed in the world. However, it reads less like a radical vision for the future and more an attempt to deal with the implications of policy decisions made elsewhere in government. The elephant in the room is the desire, bowing to the weight of increasing anti-immigrant sentiment domestically, to drastically reduce the overall immigration figure, where a good chunk of this is accounted for by international students and their dependents. Indeed, the government’s White Paper on Immigration, published in May 2025, declares that, “Immigration policy during the last Parliament replaced free movement with a free-market experiment which…allowed education institutions to pursue unlimited expansion of overseas students without proper checks in place…” It adds that this growth has been focused on, “A rapid increase in sponsored study visas at lower-ranked education institutions, driven by a rapid increase in international students applying for master’s degrees in the UK.” At the heart of the problem, according to the White Paper, is that, “too many students are using their visas as an entry point to living in the UK and frequently also bringing their families, with too many not moving into the graduate level roles for which the Graduate visa route was created.”
The figures are certainly impressive. The previous international education strategy in 2019 set a target for international students of 600,000 by 2030, which was achieved in just one year, ten years ahead of the target, with 732,000 international students studying in the UK in 2023/24, 23% of the total student population, this figure down 4% from the previous year.
The government is seeking to limit international student numbers at a time when other key markets for students, such as Canada and the USA, are also tightening their controls. This is in the broader context of the continued growth of demand for higher education. In India, for example, with about 40 million students currently in higher education, demand is expected to reach 70 million by 2035. Unsurprisingly, HE providers in the UK are keen to get a share of these students, but with limits on incoming students, they will need to focus on provision in the students’ home countries. Amidst a growth in transnational education (TNE) globally, UK provision has already expanded significantly in recent years, with over half a million students studying for UK HE qualifications outside the UK.
The International Education Strategy, 2025
The scope of the new international education policy is not limited to higher education, and it still, albeit briefly, makes space for students coming to the UK, however the focus is on TNE, which is presented as key to the growth strategy, declaring that “TNE builds global ties, supports inclusive economic development, and strengthens institutional capacity. It offers a sustainable alternative to traditional mobility, helping mitigate ‘brain drain’ while widening access to high‑quality UK provision for students who may not be able to travel. In doing so, it supports long‑term system strengthening and skills development in partner countries.”
The report argues that the “UK is uniquely placed to meet rising global demand,” combining its “world‑class standards with international partnerships.” It also sets out a number of specific strengths: UK universities are successful in global rankings, with 17 ranked in the QS global top 100; they already deliver degrees in 188 countries and territories worldwide; 33% of teachers in HE in the UK are non-nationals; the strength of the UK Education Technology sector; the fact that British English remains the benchmark for global communication and that the UK is a recognised leader in inclusive education.
The overall target for revenue from international education is £40billion pa by 2030, compared £32.3 billion in 2022. Governmental responsibility for delivering this target is spread across departments, “co‑owned by the Department for Education, the Department for Business and Trade, and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).” The strategy highlights the FCDO as “bringing global diplomatic reach and development expertise, championing education as a driver of sustainable growth and international partnerships”, alongside UK Heads of Missions and His Majesty’s Trade Commissioners. The British Council is viewed as playing a central role in brokering partnerships. There is a commitment to “use robust data and evidence for strategic decision‑making and work across government to embed international education into the priorities of departments.” The strategy also mentions the Government’s impending Soft Power Strategy, intended to “set out a renewed commitment to the values, creativity, and global partnerships that define our country’s influence in the world.”
However the strategy is presented as primarily an industry-led endeavour, with the UK Government’s International Education Champion, Professor Sir Steve Smith, and a reconstituted Education Sector Action Group representing the sector. In terms of delivery, the strategy highlights an upcoming sector-led promotional document that will set out the UK’s offer in greater detail, and notes that representatives on the reformed Education Sector Action Group (ESAG), are required to provide action plans within the first 100 days of their appointment. Steve Smith is expected to engage with current focus countries of India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam, alongside with exploring opportunities in other emerging economies such as Brazil, Mexico and Pakistan.
What do the commentators say about the Strategy?
Quoted in Times Higher Education (THE), David Pilsbury, chief development officer at Oxford International, called the strategy document a “real missed opportunity”, containing little detail. Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, argued that TNE cannot be seen as an adequate replacement for students coming to the UK. However, Malcolm Press, president of Universities UK, has welcomed the new strategy as a sign of “renewed commitment to fostering the global reach, reputation and impact of our universities,” and Jamie Arrowsmith, Director of Universities UK International, argues that, “By making world-class education available to hundreds of thousands of students in their home countries, our universities are helping to meet a pressing global demand for higher education while strengthening the UK’s international reputation.” Also quoted in THE, Steve Smith, the government’s international education champion, argued that the strategy is an “incredibly positive base,” given the political circumstances, adding that, “Coming out with no target is a hell of a lot better than someone saying we should actually reduce the target, or saying we’ll keep it where it is.” For Smith, this implies that there remains no limit on incoming student numbers, and signifies “commitment to a stable policy environment,” adding that to get to the target of £40billion an increase in revenue of foreign students coming to the UK will be required. Writing in WonkHE, David Kernohan highlights that, where the IES provides detail on schools-level accreditation and oversight, it is lacking on higher education quality assurance and international standards.
What does the underlying data tell us?
Although transnational education (TNE), particularly in HE, is at the centre of the new strategy, it is currently responsible for just £3 billion of total revenues from education exports, of which only £1 billion came from HE. However, writing for WonkHE, David Kernohan is sceptical of the basis for the revenue figures for TNE, also noting that there is no way of understanding at a sector or provider level how these activities turn a profit.
Analysis from Universities UK International UK (UUKi) from HESA data, shows 653,570 students were studying with UK higher education providers overseas in 2023-24, across 173 institutions in 231 countries and territories, a 7.8% rise on 2022-23, with an average annual growth rate of 9.6% over the past five years. It finds that, if this growth were to continue, UK providers could reach 1 million TNE students by 2028-29. According to the Cross-Border Education Research Team (C-BERT), there were, globally (not just UK institutions), a total of 384 overseas branch campuses across 85 different host countries, as of November 2025. However, this figure excludes many arrangements for UK institutions internationally, including co-partnerships and franchise models, where, as David Kernohan notes for WonkHE, relationships operate “at vastly variable scales of financial and reputational investment.”
Of interest in UK TNE in relation to the IES is that where the White Paper on immigration focused on issues with institutions towards the bottom end of university rankings, research by Eve Hartmann et al. published in University World News shows that top-tier universities tend to engage substantially less with TNE than pre-92 and post-92 universities, with Russell Group universities enrolling only one offshore TNE student for every three onshore international students, where, post-1992 and other pre-1992 universities enrolled nearly six TNE students for each onshore international student. However, the strong correlation is found mainly at the undergraduate level. For masters level programmes, institution status was much less correlated to TNE engagement.
What does this mean for TNE – and for students wanting to study in the UK?
The UK Government’s International Education Strategy correctly highlights that TNE is well placed to continue its trajectory of growth. However, placing it front and centre does not reflect the relatively small proportion of revenues it currently contributes to total education exports. For the foreseeable future, at least, it is clearly not a substitute for students coming to the UK, where incoming students not only bring fees to the university but also contribute to the UK economy in many other ways.
Overall, it is clear that the key metric for delivering on the strategy is revenue. Despite fine words about soft power and relationship-building, the strategy will be driven primarily by market forces. Institutions will therefore focus on where the returns are greatest, rather than being required to tie into broader regional policy aims. Clearly, the UK’s competitors in Central Asia (China and Russia) operate within broader political-driven strategies.
A drive for revenue potentially also threatens quality. David Kernohan highlights the lack of teeth around quality assurance in HE in the strategy. A greater focus on quality in the strategy would be reassuring, particularly given that the most prolific UK providers of TNE tend not to be at the top of the university rankings. There is a danger that, with reduced numbers of students coming to the UK, the rest of the World will view UK HE increasingly through TNE providers in their country. Clearly, the UK needs providers who are able to succeed in what will be increasingly competitive and demanding markets, but at the same time will need to preserve the reputation for high quality.
What does all this mean for students wanting to study in the UK? The good news is that good quality students wanting to study at good universities, fortunate enough to have the money to pay for your education, will still be welcomed with open arms. Probably, given the reduction in overall numbers, you will receive an even warmer welcome.
For current and future providers of TNE in the UK, the strategy probably won’t change very much. They will continue to get support from the British Council (if they have any budget, given their current woes) and from Heads of Mission, and the government will itself promote the sector in its foreign policy, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer did on his recent trip to India.
References
Patrick Jack, 21/01/2026, No new target for overseas students ‘better than alternatives’, Times Higher Education, https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/no-new-target-overseas-students-better-alternatives
Helen Packer, 20/01/2026, New UK international education strategy pushes offshore expansion, Times Higher Education, https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/new-uk-international-education-strategy-pushes-offshore-expansion
Patrick Jack, 09/10/2025, TNE to overtake onshore international enrolments ‘by next year’, Times Higher Education, https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/tne-overtake-onshore-international-enrolments-next-year
Simon Dawson, 09/10/2025, Starmer backs UK university boom in India as more campuses launch, Times Higher Education, https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/starmer-backs-uk-university-boom-india-more-campuses-launch
David Kernohan, 20/01/2026, A new international education strategy, WonkHE, https://wonkhe.com/blogs/a-new-international-education-strategy/
David Kernohan, 19/06/2025, We still don’t have a clue about the income or cost from transnational education, https://wonkhe.com/wonk-corner/we-still-dont-have-a-clue-about-the-income-or-cost-from-transnational-education/
Eva Hartmann and Sangwoo Lee, 07/01/2026, British TNE is booming, but what exactly drives demand?, University World News, https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20260106100634761
British Council/Education Insight, 10/2022, The Value of Transnational Education Partnerships, British Council, https://www.britishcouncil.org/research-insight/value-transnational-education-partnerships
Franklin Nelson, 28/10/2025, British Council ‘selling everything it can’ to survive, Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/af61e4ce-5d10-4300-a84b-1da18dbb2225
Janice Rodrigues 23/10/25, Canada sees significant declines in international student numbers, CIC News, https://www.cicnews.com/2025/10/canada-sees-year-over-year-decline-in-international-student-arrivals-and-population-in-august-1061151.html
House of Commons, 27/06/2025, International students in UK higher education Research Briefing, House of Commons, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7976/
C-Bert, International Campuses, 01/2026, https://www.cbert.org/intl-campus
Patrick Jack, 07/11/2025, US, UK and Russia drive growth of branch campuses worldwide, Times Higher Education, https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/us-uk-and-russia-drive-growth-branch-campuses-worldwide
UK Government, 12/05/2025, Restoring control over the immigration system: white paper, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/restoring-control-over-the-immigration-system-white-paper
Universities UK International, (2025), Transnational education (TNE) data, https://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/what-we-do/policy-and-research/publications/features/uk-higher-education-data-international/transnational-education-tne-data
Department for Education, (2025), UK revenue from education related exports and transnational education activity 2022, https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/uk-revenue-from-education-related-exports-and-transnational-education-activity/2022
Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Higher Education Student Statistics: UK 2023/24 released, 20/03/2025
https://www.hesa.ac.uk/new
